A map of 53 elements across seven families, sized for 2026 and forecast to 2030.
Every figure carries a named source. Where analysts disagree materially, the map shows the spread rather than
picking one quietly.
Identity core, 2026
$443B
de-duplicated, non-overlapping
Identity core, 2030
$799B
15.9% a year
Adjacent markets
$527B
payment and credit rails
Sources cited
144
11 elements new since 2025
The identity core total counts each segment once. Where two elements measure substantially the
same spend, only the larger one counts toward the total, though both still appear on the map with their own
figures. Payment, credit, and transaction rails are reported separately as adjacent markets, because identity
governs that surface without owning the revenue. Six elements carry no figure at all: no analyst house sizes
them credibly yet, and an invented number would be worse than an honest gap.
Prove it
7 elements
Establishing that a person is who they claim to be, at onboarding and at every check after it.
Access it
14 elements
Deciding what a verified identity is allowed to reach, and re-deciding it as risk changes.
Carry it
7 elements
Credentials the holder keeps and presents, rather than a provider looking them up.
Defend it
8 elements
Detecting and stopping attacks aimed at identity itself, including the ones AI made cheap.
Machines and AI
5 elements
Identity for the things that are not people: workloads, services, and now agents acting on someone's behalf.
Move value
6 elements
Payment and credit rails that identity governs but does not own. Counted separately, never blended into the identity figure.
Govern it
6 elements
The record-keeping, consent, and cryptographic layer the rest of the map depends on.